WSJ: Lions "the NFL's worst defense, ever"

Football writer Reed Albergotti of the Wall Street Journal (the Wall Street Journal has a sports page?!) explores how the Lions defense got so terrible.

The headline says "The NFL's Worst Defense, Ever: Bad Drafts and Strategic Bungling Have the Lions Bleeding Yards at Record Pace." To be fair, nowhere in the article does Albergotti call the Lions' D the worst ever, and editors, not reporters, write the headlines. Albergotti does note, however:

The team's defense has allowed 1,033 points in 34 games—the most since Lyndon Johnson was in the White House.

Despite a new defensive-minded head coach and a completely re-engineered roster, the Lions lost their first two games this season by a combined score of 72 to 40, putting its defense back in its familiar place at the bottom of the league.

All this presents an enduring mystery: In a league like the NFL that's expressly designed to help bad teams help themselves, how can a defense whose players will earn $45 million this season be so stubbornly horrible?

Albergotti imparts to the nation reasons for which we here are all too familiar (my paraphrases):

1. Committing to, then bungling, the Tampa 2, which can work with smaller, less strong players BUT requires discipline and knowing the playbook and your responsibilities so well as to be instinctive. The Lions got smaller, weaker, less talented and the players never grasped the defense.

2. Ridiculous hires (Rod Marinelli as head coach and The Son-in-Law as defensive coordinator, neither of whom had experience in the job they were doing.)

3. Millen's impossibly bad drafting.

Though he's famous for picking bad wide receivers, Mr. Millen's greatest shortcoming may actually have come on defense. He used a second-round pick in 2007 for defensive end Ikaika Alama-Francis, who is no longer in the NFL, and two third-round picks in 2004 and 2005 for cornerbacks Keith Smith and Stanley Wilson, who are not on an NFL roster. In addition, from 2004 to 2008—when Mr. Millen left the team—nearly all of the players the Lions drafted in the late rounds haven't panned out.

Albergotti talks about how Jim Schwartz and Gunther Cunningham are transforming the defense again. Going bigger and stronger, running a more traditional 4-3. Clearly the transition isn't complete. (Albergotti defends the Lions in this respect, though -- that New Orleans offense also shredded a typically stout Eagles D the following week.)

Albergotti concludes thusly:

Mr. Schwartz hasn't been around long enough to get very much depth on defense, and a season-ending injury to defensive end Jared DeVries was a significant loss.

"What Jim Schwartz took over, in my opinion, was worse than an expansion franchise," says former Baltimore Ravens head coach Brian Billick, who will call the Lions game against the Redskins for Fox on Sunday. "There's only so much you can do in a year."

A fair and accurate assessment? Share your thoughts in The Den.

---

Rosenberg: Marinelli Left "Good Base"

Michael Rosenberg of the Free Press believes that despite the Lions' 0-16 record of '08 that Rod Marinelli's legacy will be a good base to build on. A good base of players? No, not that, but rather a good culture of players who fought hard in adversity.

he made the Lions better in one important sense: He changed the culture.

The 2008 Lions seemed to like each other. They played hard. They did not seem especially bitter toward the head coach or management. They cared more about winning than about their own stats. (link)

Considering that Schwartz and Mayhew are currently in the process of turning over more than half the final roster, and more than half of the starters from the beginning of last season, I fail to see how Marinelli established a good culture. To me, that was no more than a group of harmonious losers.

---

Football Outsiders takes a long look at the Lions

Phil Zaroo over at Mlive.com scored an impressive audio interview with Bill Barnwell of Football Outsiders.  For those not familiar with their work, the guys over at FO have made waves over the past few years with the way they view and analyze football statistics.  Anyone who’s ever lost a fantasy football game because their QB kneeled out the clock a few times, and therefore gained a few negative rushing yards, knows that the typical metrics of football success—total yardage, sliced in a variety of ways—don’t accurately represent the true effectiveness of plays or players.

Barnwell, and his associates, have developed a system of measuring “value”—essentially, giving context to every yard gained and point scored—what down and distance was it, what team was it against, what was the score, what was the time in the game—and, by comparing the results to the league average in similar situations, they mathematically deriving the team’s effectiveness in terms of value (‘value over average”)  It’s an approach often compared to Oakland A’s GM Billy Beane’s “Moneyball” scouting method.

Lions fans won’t be surprised to know that according to FO’s analysis, the 2008 Lions defense wasn’t as bad as the scoreboard suggested—it was much, much worse.  The 2008 Lions defensive value over average was the worst they’ve ever measured—and it isn’t close, either.  Lions fans WILL be suprised, however, to know that the Lions were actually ranked ninth in short-yardage situations, and Barnwell suggests in the interview that Dominic Raiola is fighting an unfair perception that he can’t push the pile, and that the total lack of ability or consistency on either side of him throughout his career is more to blame.

Barnwell also delves into the differences between Rod Marinelli and Jim Schwartz (who has been a contributor/consultant to FO in the past), the Lions’ revamped linebacking unit, their projection of the Lions' win total and—of course—the quarterback debate.  It’s a great listen.

Discuss it here, in The Den!

Teachable moment shows difference between Schwartz, Marinelli

Jim Schwartz had a long talk with the Lions' offense following two-minute drills Sunday in which the team scored no TDs, Tom Kowalski at MLive.com reports.

"There were some coaching points that came up in that, and I don't like to wait until we get off the field or wait until a meeting at night because it's a lot better to make (those points) right away," Schwartz said.

That's already a refreshing change from the approach of the last coach, Rod Marinelli. Having come in as a defensive line coach from Tampa Bay with no head coaching or even coordinator experience, Marinelli hired Mike Martz to run the offense -- and then Marinelli seemed to abdicate himself from any authority over or involvement in it.

It was a bad move on many levels, not the least of which being Martz tended to run an offense that when it failed -- which it often did due to a lack of talent -- put an even less talented defense back out onto the field far too often, for far too long. The results were predictable.

Schwartz comes from a defensive background, but realizes that he's the head coach of the entire team; and that in the big picture, the offenses and defenses should complement one another.

Discuss in The Den!

---

Can Backus have a resurgence? Who knows?

From MLive's Tom Kowalski's summer scouting reports... Killer describes LOT Jeff Backus as a player who's "had his confidence shaken and who has given up an average of 10 sacks per season for the last three years."

(Now that you quantify it like that ... yuck!)

Killer makes a decent case for how an offseason contract squabble, Mike Martz's system and the pressure it puts on pass blockers, and a rib injury all worked against Backus in recent years.

The new staff isn't giving up on Backus yet because they want to see how he does when he's firing off the ball as much as he is dropping back in pass protection. The theory is that an offensive line has to dictate the action because defensive linemen are far less effective when they're worn down by the running game and also don't know when a run or pass is coming. When a team is either pass-happy, doesn't have a running threat or constantly behind, the linemen can tee off and play the run on the way to the quarterback.

That's why new head coach Jim Schwartz is adamant that the Lions will run the ball and, even if they're not effective early, they're not going to abandon it. Left tackle is the most important position on the line and, based on his performance this season, Backus will either prove to be a solid starter again or he'll be one of the players who could see a change of scenery next year.

I hate to be the one who reminds you, but we heard about the commitment to the run from Rod Marinelli after Martz was ousted, too. And it -- and Backus -- didn't work out so great.

Still, Jeff has to know what's on the line this year. I've got to believe he'll come in in the best shape he's been in, physically and mentally, in years, and really go after keeping his job. If it still doesn't work out, at least the Lions' line depth is better than it's been.

Talk about it in The Den!

---

William Clay Ford Sr. speaks out

John Niyo at detnews.com has a fairly lengthy interview with Lions owner William Clay Ford Sr., Ford's first since the firing of team president Matt Millen early last season.

Among the interesting tidbits:
* Ford did get input from NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell after Millen's firing regarding a new front office leader. But he went with Millen holdovers Martin Mayhew and Tom Lewand because he knew them, liked them and found them qualified.
* An admission that both Millen and former Coach Rod Marinelli didn't have the necessary experience going into the job.
* That Ford relied on Millen to make the decision to hire both Marinelli and Steve Mariucci, but new Coach Jim Schwartz was his call and his alone.
* That Ford's son, Bill Ford's, public declaration that Millen would be fired were he in charge, days before Ford Sr. actually fired Millen, did not influence the decision. In fact, the elder Ford told Niyo, he had heard his son's dissatisfaction with Millen multiple times -- days before he went public with it; weeks; months; and years earlier.
* That Ford has never directed a coach or team executive to play or not play a player.
* That the supposed dispute over remaining money to be paid to Millen is resolved.
* That Ford feels for the fans, praises those who remain loyal to the team; understands those who have finally bailed out; and that he actually listens to the fan complaints.

A lot of meaty stuff here, obviously.

Ford's been psychoanalyzed in the past by armchair pundits. He certainly has a different way about him, and it shows through in the interview. He pays lip service to wanting to win and doing what it takes. But then he casually explains away sticking for years with Millen despite his abysmal failure at all levels, with the entire world including his son howling at him to make the necessary change.

We hear Ford casually talk about blowing off the NFL Commissioner's attempted help on not making another Millen mistake, and why his grand search for a way to turn around 0-16 ended at the end of his nose, with the front office guys right in front of him. (Don't get me wrong; that might actually work out. That still doesn't make the lack of a real examination of the situation or a search outside of a 31-97 franchise any less maddening.)

I continue to think Ford doesn't have a clue how to win, and the bottom line of why it hasn't happened for decades is it's simply never been high on his priority list. We can only hope he's stumbled into the right people who can make this successful in Mayhew, Lewand and Schwartz.

They're talking about it in The Den!

---

---