Many questions remain on D-line heading into last preseason game

At a time where teams optimally are making their final roster decisions for a couple of positions, the Lions have questions yet to answer and decisions yet to make regarding virtually their entire defensive line heading into tonight's final preseason game with the Bills.

Tom Kowalski at MLive.com reports that a season-ending Achilles injury to DE Jared DeVries didn't help matters.

DeVries already was slated for the starting left defensive end position with Cliff Avril and Dewayne White fighting for the starting job on the right side. Now, the Lions probably will move Avril to the left side -- that's where he will get a lot of action in Thursday's game -- to compete with Jason Hunter.

Andre Fluellen, last year's third-round draft choice, also has been moved since the injury to DeVries. Fluellen was at tackle but also is playing at left end.

Questions remain on the interior of the defensive line as well, according to Killer:

Veteran Grady Jackson is expected to be a starter, but the Lions expect only 12 to 15 plays per game out of him for the first few weeks of the season. The Lions need to find another starter and another player to rotate with Jackson.

Who will step up? The candidates are Shaun Smith, Chuck Darby, Sammie Hill, Landon Cohen, Ikika Alama-Francis and Orien Harris.

Having this much unresolved this late in the preseason about so many D-line positions probably isn't good. But it's a long road back from 0-16.

Talk about it in The Den!

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Mayhew discusses what he's looking for in Preaseason Game 1

Good little Q-and-A with Freep.com's Nick Cotsonika and Lions GM Martin Mayhew, heading into Saturday's first preseason game.

Key points from Mayhew:
* He wants to see if players who've looked good in practice -- including rookie QB Matthew Stafford -- can translate it into a game situation.

* Injuries and the Lions' lack of depth have left some positions in sigificant flux, but it's a great opportunity for some young, unproven guys trying to make the team.

*Mayhew is happy with the addition of DT Shaun Smith, but the loss of DE Jared DeVries for the season is going to really hurt. "We're still sorting those guys out," Mayhew said of the D-line.

*Mayhew expects third-round draft choice WR Derrick Williams to contribute in the return game.

Read the full interview above, and talk about it in The Den!

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Update: DeVries out for year with achilles tendon injury

The Detroit Lions' worst fears were confirmed as veteran defensive end Jared DeVries suffered a season-ending injury to his Achilles's tendon today at practice, Tom Kowalski at MLive.com reports.

Denizen Wildcat67, looking for a silver lining, likes the idea of DeWayne White at left defensive end, Cliff Avril getting more snaps at right defensive end, and Ikaika Alama-Francis getting more snaps in general.

Martin Mayhew will no doubt be looking for help. Fortunately it's early enough to find some.

Join the conversation here in The Den.

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The Football Outsiders On The Lions

I received my Football Outsiders 2009 Almanac today, and even as I type I have it clutched in my greazy fingers. This is my annual 'little kid' experience - well semi-annual, along with draft weekend. The Outsiders really appeal to my interests in trend analysis and 'Moneyball' concepts. So I guess their work isn't for everyone, but it certainly is for me. Normally when I get books and magazines I employ a certain level of discipline, starting at page 1 and reading every article before getting to my favorite teams and players. Occasionally I will skip those pages entirely, saving them for last. In this case though, my first thought was to blog it up, so in a sense of true altruism I forewent my typical custom and dove right into the Lion pages. Bill Barnwell, another Lion slappy penned the Lion section and the quotes are from him. Without revealing everything, Barnwell discusses four topics in the main narrative; 0-16, Jim Schwartz, player turnover, and Matt Stafford.

While they had the worst record in NFL history, they weren't the worst team. They had the second-worst DVOA of any team in the 15 seasons for which we've calculated DVOA, but they don't come close to the 2005 49ers ... since the merger in 1970 there have been 32 teams whose Pythagorean winning percentage ... was below that of last year's Lions - including last year's Rams.

This sort of touches on something we all knew anyway, it is really hard to go 0-16. Even with a dysfunctional talentless team it very difficult not to luck into at least one win. Pythagorean projections (based on points scored/allowed) put them as a roughly average 'worst team in the league' over the last 40 years. It was just bad luck that kept them from the win column. On Schwartz:

Schwartz knows that a team's performance on third down has a disproportionate impact on their success relative to how they do on first and second down [so practices will concentrate on third down conversions, and stopping the same] ... Schwartz's decision-making will be equally affected, though, by his experiences as a pro coach. As he initially struggled with rebuilding the Tennessee defense, Schwartz realized that all the scheming and analysis in the world was useless if it didn't fit the personnel he had in front of him [go figure!]. As a result, he began to construct his defenses with the primary goal of fitting the personnel he had in place.

Golly, play to your strengths, disguise your weaknesses. Don't make square Lenons fit round holes. Hardly revolutionary but something that was desperately lacking on offense throughout the West Coast days and then on defense in the Marinelli era. Barnwell also notes that last year Tennessee primarily ran Cover-2, which played to the coverage strengths of their linebackers. As for the Stafford comments I'll leave them to anyone who wants to purchase the Almanac. As expected, he doesn't project very well as a pro quarterback but perhaps he can defy projections. So far he appears to be off to a good start. Looking at some of the Lion stats from last year I'll try to extract the wheat from the chaff. The Outsiders acknowledge the limitations of their methods, and really of any statistical discussion of team sport, but perhaps football most of all.

Football is a game in which nearly every action requires the work of two or more teammates - in fact, usually 11 teammates all working in unison. Unfortunately, when it comes to individual player ratings. we are still far from the point at which we can determine the value of a player independent from the performance of his teammates.

For example Calvin Johnson had a DYAR of 256 which is respectable, but also in the range of Steve Breaston and Derrick Mason, whereas the best receivers in the league were close to double that. The rating is understandable, Calvin was targeted 150 times with 79 catches, by contrast Larry Fitzgerald was also targeted ~ 150 times but with 96 receptions for nearly as many Y/C. Context is everything though, Arizona had Kurt Warner throwing to Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston. Detroit had 300 pound quarterbacks fresh from Safeway throwing to Calvin and Keary Colbert.

But anyhoo, a few of the more interesting numbers that should have some significance in '09. The '08 offensive line was surprisingly effective at run blocking. Some of this is due to opponents playing prevent for huge chunks of their contests, but not all. The overall running numbers were very poor, however Detroit finished 9th in the NFL in Power situations (3rd, 4th, goal-line). Looking at the Y/C #s, blocking was increasingly effective going left to right, with Detroit rushers averaging just over 2 Y/C going outside LT while averaging 4.2 going over RT and 4.7 going off the RE. Adding Pettigrew to the blocking mix on the right side makes for a very promising weapon, assuming Cherilus and Peterman can maintain last year's production.



The defensive line also had some surprising production. Both Jared DeVries and Chuck Darby finished in the top 20 in Stop % at their respective positions. DeVries was surprisingly effective as a pass rusher as well, with 3 hits and 10 hurries to go with his 2 sacks. By comparison Dewayne White had 3 hits and 4 hurries.

Finally, while the defensive secondary was a mess, as we all know, there was one rather bright spot, Kalvin Pearson. Pearson finished 10th in the NFL versus the run and 24th versus the pass. The rest of the secondary finished in the 60s and beyond in just about every category. No other db finished in the top 30 in either spot.

Okay, so it's just numbers, and maybe they only really appeal to geeks like me, but in some sense they pass the sniff test. Pearson did appear to be effective in spots last year, even while the rest of the defense flailed. DeVries was steady. Once the offensive line got aligned it was fairly effective at run blocking. The team has a way to go, clearly. The cornerbacks are still awful, the offensive line won't get fixed in a single year, the linebacking may have been fixed a little but it is patchwork, we can't expect either Peterson or Foote to remain effective for long, if they even stay past '09. But even so, maybe the light at the end of this tunnel isn't a train.

Discuss it Here, in The Den

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Training Camp Battles: Defensive Line

Returning to the training camp battles on the defensive side of the ball. I haven't been too happy with the discussion so far which accidentally became more of a biography than any kind of worthwhile analysis. The tepid response in The Den confirms my thoughts. Furthermore there have already been a couple of excellent discussions about the defense, both in The Den and elsewhere. This morning Den regular AtticusSpeaks went through a fairly in depth discussion of the entire roster. mickeyblu posted a link to a FoxSports discussion of the team, and finally there is already an extensive ongoing discussion of the defense in The Den, started by poster scottallen222 about the state of the defense. I'm not sure that I can add anything original in this space, so instead I will attempt a different tack while discussing the defense, and hopefully it will be a little more interesting than the prior articles.

Defensive Tackles

Probably the point of greatest concern by Lion observers of the entire roster, it is difficult to argue that the team has one legitimate starter at the position. Last season Detroit began the year with six defensive tackles on the roster, they are unlikely to have so many this year.

Grady Jackson. Little can be said about the guy that hasn't been said elsewhere. Long-time vet, he's the most legitimate of the tackles on the team. He played at a high level as recently as two years ago, but no longer has the legs to be a full time player. He should provide starter-level production when he is on the field. Chance to make the roster: 100%

Sammie Lee Hill. Rookie fourth rounder who has impressed so far. Raw and ideally would be used sparingly his rookie year, he may be thrown into the fire early. He and Jackson are the only two tackles with the bulk that Schwartz prefers. Chance to make the roster: 100%

Andre Fluellen. Spent more time at left end than at tackle his rookie year, and played fairly well, showing surprising pash-rush skill. One possibility might have him at end on running downs, moving inside on passing downs. Chance to make the roster: 100%

Chuck Darby. Long time vet set a career high in tackles in '08 but was widely blamed for the defective run defense of the '08 team. He's never carried a line and he isn't about to start, but he can still be effective as a rotational guy. Chance to make roster: 85%

Landon Cohen. Got regular rotation time the last half of '08. He's been ordered to gain weight and his effectiveness at a bigger size will determine whether he wins a spot. The lack of competition leans in his favor and since he accrued a year with Detroit I do not believe he is eligible for their practice squad. He has a good chance of making the team as a regular inactive. Chance to make roster: 75%

John Gill. UFA out of Northwestern, he had an impressive Pro Day showing good strength and quickness but he is not ready to contribute at the NFL level and seems practice squad bound. Rick Gosselin named him one of the sleepers of the draft, for what it's worth. Chance to make roster: 30%

Orien Harris. Strictly a look-see guy. He's been productive in training camps even while he's bounced around the league. If he sneaks on to the roster his spot would be tenuous, at best. Ongoing discussion about the Harris acquisition Here, while Ty provides some more detail Here. Chance to make roster: 15%

Defensive Ends

Dewayne White. The only ex-Buc that Marinelli demanded who actually worked out pretty well. Is the only secure starter on the defensive line. Chance to make roster: 100%

Cliff Avril. He got four starts last year but his strength at the point is still questionable and he may be more suitable as a two-down end, particularly since there are ends on the roster more suited to defending the run. Chance to make roster: 100%

Ikaika Alama-Francis. Call me an optimist but Francis has all of the tools to be a standout pro. He's ideally sized at end for Schwartz' bigger line and started to get his legs toward then end of '08 after washing out of his rookie year due to injury and inexperience. There is no way this guy should ever have been a 2nd round pick, but think of him as a developmental 5th rounder and he is right on pace. He has the strength to defend the run and the explosiveness to get up field on passing downs. I expect him to be a very regular contributer at both ends. Chance to make roster: 100%

Jared DeVries. Has only been a starter the last three seasons and remains more valuable as a reserve. Typical yeoman-type player who will fight hard but is fairly easily controlled by better tackles. His roster spot is probably dependent on whether Detroit signs Kevin Carter or not. Chance to make roster: 80%

Jason Hunter. Special teams ace for the Packers he also did a credible job filling a regular spot late in '08. Isn't the size that Schwartz looks for and is probably a special teamer for Detroit, but he should land a spot. Chance to make roster: 75%

Eric Hicks. Was a good end for Gunther Cunningham and Bob Karmelowicz for years before his career wound down in '07, and his last really productive season was '05. Karm thought enough of him to call him and offer his a shot, but these types of comebacks don't usually work out too well. Chance to make roster: 20%

Ryan Kees. UFA out of St. Cloud. Isn't NFL ready but he could force his way on to the roster due to lack of competition. Big framed developmental guy, ideally suited to a year on the practice squad. Chance to make roster: 5%

Rudolph Hardy. Spent most of his rookie season out of the NFL before being added to Detroit's practice squad late. Strictly training camp fodder who is playing for another practice squad gig. Chance to make roster: 1%

Detroit had enough bodies to field a defensive line, but most of those guys aren't terribly good, with only White approaching NFL-average performance at his position. Rome wasn't built in a day, and rebuilding this line might be tougher than slapping up the Parthenon. I still expect Detroit to add bodies, if not Kevin Carter then someone, but either way I will be surprised if there isn't a significant draft investment in the defensive line next spring.

I have a lot of important drinking to do tomorrow, so the next installment may be delayed until Friday. Meanwhile discuss it Here in The Den

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Marinelli's men; how will they adjust?

It's getting to be that time of year with 2009 season previews, and Athlon Sports has one with a fairly astute breakdown of the Lions in different areas -- and one point I found particularly interesting:

Marinelli was proud no defensive lineman weighed more than 300 pounds entering training camp last year. Now Schwartz has told everybody to bulk up, and he acquired a couple of monsters to stick in the middle. The Lions signed tackle Grady Jackson, who is listed at 345 pounds but weighs much more. They also drafted tackle Sammie Hill, a raw, 329-pound prospect out of Stillman. Keep an eye on end Cliff Avril, who was a tweener when the Lions drafted him in the third round last year. He likely will start at right end as a speed pass rusher, but the Lions might move him around creatively. Dewayne White and Jared DeVries are solid, know-what-you’re-getting ends. But it will be interesting to see how end Ikaika Alama-Francis and tackles Andre Fluellen and Landon Cohen fit. All were drafted by the previous regime for the Tampa 2.

The Athlon writer also notes "Former coach Rod Marinelli wanted smaller, quicker players, and he wanted them to execute his Tampa 2 defense generally the same way regardless of the opponent. Schwartz wants bigger, stronger players and more versatile schemes. He wants to play to his players’ strengths and opponents’ weaknesses."

I think the Athlon writer is right, that IAF, Flu and Cohen may have more to prove to the new regime this training camp than some others. If Schwartz's and Cunningham's defense don't play to their size and/or strengths, how versatile can they prove themselves to be, being able to adjust?

Discuss in The Den!

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Lions and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. try to sell each other's tickets

Embattled heir to the NASCAR throne, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., made an appearance at the Motor City Casino with Lions coach Jim Schwartz, as well as Lions Matt Stafford, Jared DeVries, and Casey Fitzsimmons.  According to Mike Brudenell of the Free Press, Earnhardt was at the casino to speak with hundreds of GM employees about the adversity he'd gone through this season, and how he was persevering and overcoming it.  For his trouble, was presented with an authentic Lions helmet.  The event was an interesting cross-promotion, both trying to raise awareness and ticket sales for the annual NASCAR race at MIS, and raise awareness and ticket sales for the Lions.

Dale, Jr., the Lions, and GM certainly have a lot in common when it comes to disappointment, but I'd like to think they're at different points on the journey.  The Lions already hit rock bottom and are poised to regain respectability, GM is set to bottom out on Monday, and Earnhardt might not yet have fallen as far as he's going to fall.  Still, here's hoping I'm wrong--and that the Lions, NASCAR's favorite son, and the hardworking men and women of GM have all put their worst days behind them.

Discuss it here, in The Den!

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Dan-O on his fresh start in Houston -- and "The Play"

From the Hartford Courant we catch up with former Lion and current Texan Dan Orlovsky. "Paying attention to detail and doing all the little things, I think, is why I was blessed to be in position to get the contract with Houston," Orlovsky said. Attention to detail? Um, what about the play where you ...? Actually, Orlovsky gives some interesting elaboration on that scramble out of the back of the end zone in Minnesota, that I don't think we've heard before:

The Lions were at their 1 when Orlovsky dropped back to pass. The Vikings' Jared Allen broke through the line. Breaking to his right, Orlovsky saw Allen but inadvertently stepped out of bounds in the back of the end zone. He not only ran out of bounds, but he kept running as if the play were still live while Allen was merely shadowing him and celebrating the safety. "That wasn't the impression I was looking to make," Orlovsky said, laughing. "But I felt terrible. It was a stupid play and I was really down about it, but Jared DeVries, a defensive end and an 11-year veteran, comes up to me right after the play and says, 'Forget about that. We need you. Everybody makes mistakes.' "[Wide receiver] Calvin Johnson comes up to me and says, 'Man, I didn't mean to laugh, but that stuff was funny.' So I mean, it happened. I'll be remembered for it, I'm sure. But you have to move on, and I did. After that game, I just went back to paying attention to detail again and doing the little things — like I always did."

Something about Megatron seeing Dan-O on the sidelines and cracking up about that infamous play will have me smiling all day -- though I wasn't smiling at the time. Talk about it in The Den.

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Jared Devries' seventh "fresh start"

Nick Cotsonika over at the Free Press has written an interesting little post about both the forgotten man, Jared DeVries--the only Lion (not named Jason Hanson) who's seen Millen come and go--and the new defensive alignment.

"You get down to it, it's the total opposite," DeVries said. "Instead of making the corners make the tackles, you make the linebackers make the tackles."

When he puts it that way, it makes an awful lot of sense.  The new ends-wide alignment should cut down on the screens, pitches, and bounce-outs that the Lions have had chronic difficulty slowing in recent years.  Often, the DTs would disrupt or penerate on running plays, only to have the DEs be easily sealed off or blocked down; the runner could make one quick adjustment and get into the second level untouched.  Regardless of the tremendous amount of sense the philosophy switch makes, I think doing "the total opposite" of what the worst defense of all time did is at least a good starting point. Discuss it here, in The Den!

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