Put The Nooses Away

Put the hemlock tea bags back up. Unload the 12 gauge. It wasn't that bad. Really.

Okay, so it was pretty bad, but if you maintain a comfortably pessimistic philosophy regarding the Lions, then it is actually pretty easy to find some of the bright spots in an otherwise uninspiring and borderline disastrous game. Drew Sharp, the only local writer I know of who is more cynical than me regarding the Lions wrote

It looks like they're already in regular-season form.

This is exactly why the Lions are certifiably nuts should quarterbacking savior du jour Matthew Stafford start when the March to 0-32 begins in earnest in New Orleans on Sept. 13. It's counterproductive exposing a rookie quarterback to a team apparently still hell-bent on creating as insurmountable an early obstacle as possible.

in an otherwise rambling column. He also wrote

If attitudes are indeed changing and Schwartz is indeed the right messenger, he should quickly make it clear that these Lions remain too fundamentally weak defensively to needlessly risk sentencing the future face of this franchise to the football gallows.

and while I agree, I fail to understand how this is surprising to anyone. Detroit's biggest flaw in 2009 was the defense, and not biggest by a little, but rather biggest by a lot. Despite multiple quarterback injuries, the Lions demonstrated a modestly decent offense last year with Calvin Johnson and Kevin Smith leading a reasonable two-way threat. It wasn't remotely good enough to overcome an awful defense, nor was it good enough to lead the way to any kind of contention even with a defense approaching average. It just wasn't the reason that Detroit went winless.

And over the winter Detroit followed their pattern of the last 8 seasons to fix the defense, they brought in a number of veteran free agents while waiting til the middle rounds to focus on their defensive holes. It is entirely predictable that their 2009 defense will resemble their 2008 defense. I expect it will be better, but nowhere near good.

So if we go into this whole thing accepting that it will be another long year, it is much easier to enjoy the small victories, knowing that the big ones aren't coming.

Stafford Okay, he didn't play well. Not even a little. But better for the faithful to see it now, then to have unrealistic expectations build throughout the preseason. The pressure for Detroit to play the kid is officially off and the Lions can go into the season with Stafford on a natural developmental trajectory, rather than a forced one that is more likely to end in disaster.

Jerome Felton He really played well, coming in with Culpepper midway through the 2nd quarter and immediately getting three consecutive runs for a first down. After an up-and-down rookie year exclusively at fullback I think we can hope that Felton may be able to fill a bigger role as part of a two-headed tandem that may really wear down opposing defenses.

Culpepper For the second consecutive week he looked very comfortable running the Lion offense. He showed great patience and good mobility in the backfield to stretch out plays. He was effective at waiting for plays to open and then throwing very catchable balls.

DeAndre Levy He whiffed on one of the Cribbs returns but otherwise was very effective, making plays all over the field including a great open-field tackle on special teams.

Jordan Dizon Is starting to really come on after a washed-out rookie season.

Sammy Lee Hill After an underwhelming first game, Hill seemed to consistently get a good push inside. He didn't show up on the stat sheet but he spent much of his time in Cleveland's backfield disrupting things.

Nick Harris Just killed it, averaging 50 yards over his 7 punts. Unfortunately the 22 yard average on returns ruined his net average, but that speaks more the quality of the two return teams and Josh Cribbs, rather than to Harris. He wasn't kicking line drives.

So see? There you go, a nice handful of positive takeaways from last night's game and that was only on one viewing. So forget the sleeping pills, don't lock yourself in the garage with the car idling. It's another day and the Lions are pretty much the same as they were two days ago.

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DeAndre Levy Steps Up

and he needs to. With the injury to Cody Spencer, Detroit has no buffer, and that means that Levy and Jordan Dizon are going to be the only line of defense when it comes to rotating in, covering for one of the starters, or providing quality special teams play.

A week after Gunther Cunningham praised and damned him in a single sentence, Levy responded by being a leading playmaker in the exhibition win against the Falcons. With Spencer out for the year, Levy is now picking up reps at MLB and will probably be the primary backup to Foote.

"DeAndre's done a nice job of being physical in camp and doing the physical things," Schwartz said. "His biggest challenge, just like all rookies: being good with the scheme. And not just being good with the scheme in the meeting room or out here in practice, but when that real stuff starts happening and the other team's a different color, all of a sudden it becomes a little bit harder to try to get through. But that's his challenge and it probably will accelerate him a little bit."

Said Levy: "The biggest thing is I've got to focus my eyes and train my eyes to see the whole picture. That's one thing that Larry Foote does really well that I look to and try to put in my game."

Katie Koerner at detroitlions.com provides some choice quotes from Levy on the promotion.

“It’s a good experience because it helps you learn the defense better, and kind of makes you more sure on your plays because you are forced to learn both the linebacker positions. You know where everybody is supposed to be, and with a lot of the shifts and adjustments on the line it can only help your game as a player.” “JP (Julian Peterson) and (Larry) Foote, they both kind of help the young guys out. They have been around and in the league a while and played a lot of good football. They kind of give you tips here and there about where your eyes should be and how to prepare and go about things the right way at practice and in game situations.”

“I always feel like I need to work on something. Right now, I think the biggest thing that I’m trying to get better on is my eyes and my vision. Coach Gun (Gunther Cunningham) is a big guy on that and you know you have to see the whole picture and the whole thing because one misstep can put you out of the loop. It felt good to get the first game out of the way and see what it was like, but I am waiting for the real season to kick in and for all the energy and excitement to really get going."

Discuss it Here, in The Den

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Training Camp Battles: Linebackers

The linebacker corps provide something of a break as we stroll through the position groups in the week before training camp. This is the only position on the team that actually resembles an NFL-caliber group, with solid veteran starters backed up by promising young players. Detroit will probably go into the season with 7-8 linebackers and many roster spots are already relatively secure.

Julian Peterson. The prize acquisition from this past offseason, a five time Pro Bowler including the last three years in Seattle. He figures to play three downs and to be the pressure linebacker from the strong side. He may occasionally line up with his hand in the dirt. Chance of making roster: 100%

Ernie Sims. Sims is a bit enigmatic, struggling the last couple of years after a promising rookie season. Still, he is only 24 and there is a good argument that his problems stem more from being required to do too much, rather than any particular talent issues. This will be an interesting year as we see whether he can develop into an above average linebacker or not. Chance to make roster: 100%

Larry Foote. The third part of the starting triumvirate, he'll steady the middle and make plays. I'm not quite as excited as many by Foote, but he represents an upgrade and the matador run defense that Detroit featured the last couple of seasons should at least be slowed a bit. Chance of making roster: 100%

Jordan Dizon. Another disappointing linebacker from last season, and another strong argument that he was misused, when he was used at all. Lots of promising news about him out of the OTAs leads me to expect him to play a significant role, and eventually take some time from Peterson. Chance of making roster: 95% (you never know)

DeAndre Levy. The heir apparent to Foote's spot in the middle. As a third rounder on a rebuilding team it would be a major upset to see him cut. Nate wrote an article after the draft, part of which really illustrated the difference in philosophies between the Marinelli defense and the Schwartz defense.

Typically, the middle linebacker is considered the quarterback of a defense. However, under defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham, the "MIKE" position would have no more responsibility than any other position.

As Schwartz put it, it's not a very "mentally taxing" position.

“Quite honestly in our defense that’s not that big a deal," said Schwartz. "It’s not that big of a difference between an outside player and an inside player. It’s not like a quarterback on offense and maybe a tight end or something like that. Everybody on defense is responsible for making calls. It’s not one person that makes every call over there, so it’s not as big of a concern.”

Of course, we all recall that last year Dizon wasn't allowed to play because somehow Marinelli's defense was too complicated for a rookie. Apparently it was also too complicated for eleven veterans and half a dozen coaches as well, but I digress. Chance of making roster: 90%

Cody Spencer. With the release of Alex Lewis, Spencer is the lone veteran backup fighting for a spot. His experience and special team skill should give him an edge in landing one of the last 2-3 spots. Chance to make roster: 70%

Zack Follett. Guy is already developing a cult following but the fact remains, he's a 7th round pick and facing an uphill fight to win a spot. My heart says that he will be just crazy enough to land a special teams gig. Chance to make roster: 49%

Curtis Gatewood. Gunther and Karm thought enough of Gatewood to claim him from Kansas City so we have to figure he'll get a fair look. Accrued a half dozen games of special team time last year with the Chiefs. He's a classic tweener, a defensive end in college who is too small for the position in the NFL but who lacks the kind of athleticism and instincts to be an effective linebacker. It is doubtful he can ever develop past special teams. Chance to make roster: 25%

Darnell Bing. Entering his fourth NFL year and has been activated for exactly one game, registering one special team tackle. Holdover from '08 it is hard to see Bing finding a role, considering neither Oakland nor San Francisco nor Detroit have thought much of him so far. He has the hitting and coverage skills to be a nickel backer, but at this point he's filling out Safeway applications. Chance to make roster: 10%

Spenser Smith. Rookie FA our of Eastern Michigan he isn't competing for a roster spot. Converting from DE to LB, he will be lucky to get a year on the practice squad. Chance to make roster: 0%

I have a hunch that the Lions will continue to watch the waiver wire closely throughout the summer. While there is good reason to be excited about the first five linebackers above, there is plenty of room for improvement after them.
Tomorrow I'll wrap up the tour with a review of the Lions' brutal secondary.

Discuss the article Here, in The Den

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A Peek Across The Lake

A couple of national columnists devoted space to the Vikings and Packers today so I thought I would take a minute to share and weigh in.

Rick Gosselin points out that the Packers have the most returning starters in the NFL with 20, losing only Mark Tauscher - by choice - after he closed the season on IR. This is pretty bad news for the rest of the North as Green Bay had awful luck last year, scoring 40 more points than they allowed in a 6 win season. They should bounce back strong, particularly considering the youth on the team. Gosselin notes:

The Packers may be on to something by trying to keep this current team together. Green Bay endured those struggles last season with the youngest roster in the NFL at an average age of only 25.5 years.

Despite all that youth, the Packers defeated 12-4 Indianapolis and NFC North champion Minnesota, fell in overtime to 13-3 Tennessee and blew fourth-quarter leads in losing four other games. Green Bay had the talent to compete in 2008 but lacked the maturity to close out opponents.

The continued development of a young playmakers – quarterback Aaron Rodgers and wide receiver Greg Jennings are both 25 and running back Ryan Grant is 26 – and an overhauled defensive approach has coach Mike McCarthy believing his Packers can return to Super Bowl contention after a year's absence. Green Bay won 13 games in 2007 and hosted the NFC title game.

Gosselin also mentions that Detroit leads the league in '08 starters no longer on the roster with 9 departures.

In Kevin Seifert's NFC North blog, Seifert predicts that Percy Harvin will be the division's 'breakout' player of the year.

Vikings coaches seem prepared to load him with as big of a role as he can handle -- using him at all three receiver positions in spring drills, as well as a kickoff returner, punt returner and at quarterback in a new Wildcat formation.

In fact, Vikings offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell has added some 15 plays to the Vikings' playbook in anticipation of Harvin's unique skills. "We are up there [in meeting rooms] trying to diagram everything we can," Bevell said.

Okay, for one thing I object to the idea that a first round rookie could ever be a 'breakout' player. Breakout typically implies some years laboring in obscurity before suddenly taking play to a superior level. But I really object to the idea that a rookie wide receiver could be that guy. Harvin may be different, but the fact is that rookie WRs typically do not have great production their first year.

Just look at the best WRs of the decade. Holt, Harrison, Owens, Moss, Fitzgerald and Smith (I apologize if I am overlooking anyone obvious). Of that group only Moss had a great season, making All Pro on a team that set an NFL record for scoring. While many of the others had good years that illustrated their future greatness, none broke 1000 yards receiving or 10 TDs. The Lions' own Calvin Johnson had 49 receptions his first year.

If Harvin can stay clean and healthy I expect him to be an outstanding receiver and playmaker. I believe he is a tremendous talent. But I really don't expect that talent to begin to manifest itself before the last half of '09 at the earliest. There is too much for receivers to learn in the NFL. There are too many adjustments to make.

Getting back to the question of which player in the NFC North is most likely to break out, I probably would just throw that open to discussion. On the Lions my best guesses would by either Bryant Johnson or possibly Jordan Dizon, if he is forced into the lineup. As for the rest of the division? I have no good guesses.

Discuss it Here in The Den

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