Tackling, secondary big concerns -- sound familiar?

Two snippets I found interesting from Detroit News football writer John Niyo's column today:

Special teams is an area of emphasis with the new coaching staff. But that was hardly apparent Saturday.

Josh Cribbs is arguably the NFL's best return man, but he made it look way too easy in the first quarter against the Lions, who are missing a couple of key coverage men in Cody Spencer (injured reserve) and Casey FitzSimmons (ankle). Cribbs' 95-yard touchdown return of the opening kickoff was called back because of a late holding penalty. But there were no flags on his 84-yard punt return for a score, just lots of missed tackles.

"There's no reason to start the game the way we did on special teams," Schwartz said. "It's a work in progress, but were going to find out who can tackle and who can't. That's going to be a major criteria for making this team."

Stan Kwan's return unit wasn't much better, averaging 18.6 yards on kickoffs. And that's a growing concern, with Aveion Cason perhaps getting too many reps and neither rookie Derrick Williams nor Aaron Brown distinguishing himself. When you have too many returners, Schwartz noted the other day, that means you don't have any.

A lot of us have been scratching our heads about why Cason is getting so much time as a returner. Maybe that's a reflection of the coaching staff's lack of confidence in Derrick Williams or Aaron Brown in that department. And that ain't good. Hey, let a rookie take kicks out to the 18 yard line rather than a veteran, I say. At least there's a potential for upside with the rooks.

While the defensive front seven's inability to get consistent pressure on the QBs or stop big running plays is already looking problematic, Niyo notes that the secondary may be the team's weakest link.

Five Browns wide receivers had catches of 20 yards or more Saturday night. Two came on the opening drive against starting cornerbacks Phillip Buchanon and Anthony Henry, but the depth behind them is a real worry, especially with Keith Smith (groin) still on the sideline.

"Our corners need to get up and challenge guys," Schwartz said. "We need to find out who will have the confidence to get up and challenge rather than playing cautious."

They also need to find another safety who can stop the run alongside rookie Louis Delmas. Kalvin Pearson had trouble again in run support Saturday, and LaMarcus Hicks didn't fare any better replacing him. It was the same against Atlanta in the exhibition opener. Marquand Manuel, who has a calf injury, should get a shot to start when he's healthy.

Noticing a theme to Schwartz's comments? Get up there and tackle. Challenge. Don't play tentative. Be decisive and make plays.

I refuse to get visions in my head of Bobby Ross saying "I don't coach that!" or Rod Marinelli saying "Put it on me."

Discuss in The Den!

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Will Delmas' partner at S please stand up?

Culpepper vs. Stafford? Nah. We all know how that one ends, eventually.

What's shaping up to be the biggest competition of training camp is who will start at safety opposite rookie Louis Delmas (who's already looking great and cemented his position).

Tom Kowalski at MLive.com reports that while there's no official depth chart yet, Kalvin Pearson has been playing with the first unit opposite Delmas. Daniel Bullocks, who started 15 games last year, has gotten time with the second and third units, Killer writes -- but that could be just because he was limited in practice due to injuries earlier in the year.

Then there's newcomer Marquand Manuel, who started 14 games with the Denver Broncos last year.

Writes Killer:

Pearson averaged 10 tackles per game in his first four games of full-time duty but then his play started to drop off. Before a season-ending 10-tackle game against the Green Bay Packers, Pearson was averaging just five tackles for the previous seven games.

Pearson is 5-foot-9 and 200 pounds, and his lack of size might have been a contributing factor, but Pearson doesn't buy it. Neither does Schwartz.

"If you said size was an issue last year for (Tennessee cornerback) Cortland Finnegan, he's 5-9 and maybe 185 pounds, but he's incredibly durable," Schwartz said. "I don't want to put (Pearson) into a box, so to speak, and say he can't hold up for the season. I want to keep an open mind and give him an opportunity."

Pearson puts his production drop on his playing every special teams down while starting.

And the winner is ... Anthony Henry? A lot of folks speculate Henry's future is at safety. But I'm starting to think that might not happen, for the simple reason that CB doesn't look like a position of depth or strength. If a third CB can emerge allowing Henry to be shifted, the Lions abysmal secondary will get slightly deeper and a little more talented.

Talk about it in The Den!

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The Football Outsiders On The Lions

I received my Football Outsiders 2009 Almanac today, and even as I type I have it clutched in my greazy fingers. This is my annual 'little kid' experience - well semi-annual, along with draft weekend. The Outsiders really appeal to my interests in trend analysis and 'Moneyball' concepts. So I guess their work isn't for everyone, but it certainly is for me. Normally when I get books and magazines I employ a certain level of discipline, starting at page 1 and reading every article before getting to my favorite teams and players. Occasionally I will skip those pages entirely, saving them for last. In this case though, my first thought was to blog it up, so in a sense of true altruism I forewent my typical custom and dove right into the Lion pages. Bill Barnwell, another Lion slappy penned the Lion section and the quotes are from him. Without revealing everything, Barnwell discusses four topics in the main narrative; 0-16, Jim Schwartz, player turnover, and Matt Stafford.

While they had the worst record in NFL history, they weren't the worst team. They had the second-worst DVOA of any team in the 15 seasons for which we've calculated DVOA, but they don't come close to the 2005 49ers ... since the merger in 1970 there have been 32 teams whose Pythagorean winning percentage ... was below that of last year's Lions - including last year's Rams.

This sort of touches on something we all knew anyway, it is really hard to go 0-16. Even with a dysfunctional talentless team it very difficult not to luck into at least one win. Pythagorean projections (based on points scored/allowed) put them as a roughly average 'worst team in the league' over the last 40 years. It was just bad luck that kept them from the win column. On Schwartz:

Schwartz knows that a team's performance on third down has a disproportionate impact on their success relative to how they do on first and second down [so practices will concentrate on third down conversions, and stopping the same] ... Schwartz's decision-making will be equally affected, though, by his experiences as a pro coach. As he initially struggled with rebuilding the Tennessee defense, Schwartz realized that all the scheming and analysis in the world was useless if it didn't fit the personnel he had in front of him [go figure!]. As a result, he began to construct his defenses with the primary goal of fitting the personnel he had in place.

Golly, play to your strengths, disguise your weaknesses. Don't make square Lenons fit round holes. Hardly revolutionary but something that was desperately lacking on offense throughout the West Coast days and then on defense in the Marinelli era. Barnwell also notes that last year Tennessee primarily ran Cover-2, which played to the coverage strengths of their linebackers. As for the Stafford comments I'll leave them to anyone who wants to purchase the Almanac. As expected, he doesn't project very well as a pro quarterback but perhaps he can defy projections. So far he appears to be off to a good start. Looking at some of the Lion stats from last year I'll try to extract the wheat from the chaff. The Outsiders acknowledge the limitations of their methods, and really of any statistical discussion of team sport, but perhaps football most of all.

Football is a game in which nearly every action requires the work of two or more teammates - in fact, usually 11 teammates all working in unison. Unfortunately, when it comes to individual player ratings. we are still far from the point at which we can determine the value of a player independent from the performance of his teammates.

For example Calvin Johnson had a DYAR of 256 which is respectable, but also in the range of Steve Breaston and Derrick Mason, whereas the best receivers in the league were close to double that. The rating is understandable, Calvin was targeted 150 times with 79 catches, by contrast Larry Fitzgerald was also targeted ~ 150 times but with 96 receptions for nearly as many Y/C. Context is everything though, Arizona had Kurt Warner throwing to Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston. Detroit had 300 pound quarterbacks fresh from Safeway throwing to Calvin and Keary Colbert.

But anyhoo, a few of the more interesting numbers that should have some significance in '09. The '08 offensive line was surprisingly effective at run blocking. Some of this is due to opponents playing prevent for huge chunks of their contests, but not all. The overall running numbers were very poor, however Detroit finished 9th in the NFL in Power situations (3rd, 4th, goal-line). Looking at the Y/C #s, blocking was increasingly effective going left to right, with Detroit rushers averaging just over 2 Y/C going outside LT while averaging 4.2 going over RT and 4.7 going off the RE. Adding Pettigrew to the blocking mix on the right side makes for a very promising weapon, assuming Cherilus and Peterman can maintain last year's production.



The defensive line also had some surprising production. Both Jared DeVries and Chuck Darby finished in the top 20 in Stop % at their respective positions. DeVries was surprisingly effective as a pass rusher as well, with 3 hits and 10 hurries to go with his 2 sacks. By comparison Dewayne White had 3 hits and 4 hurries.

Finally, while the defensive secondary was a mess, as we all know, there was one rather bright spot, Kalvin Pearson. Pearson finished 10th in the NFL versus the run and 24th versus the pass. The rest of the secondary finished in the 60s and beyond in just about every category. No other db finished in the top 30 in either spot.

Okay, so it's just numbers, and maybe they only really appeal to geeks like me, but in some sense they pass the sniff test. Pearson did appear to be effective in spots last year, even while the rest of the defense flailed. DeVries was steady. Once the offensive line got aligned it was fairly effective at run blocking. The team has a way to go, clearly. The cornerbacks are still awful, the offensive line won't get fixed in a single year, the linebacking may have been fixed a little but it is patchwork, we can't expect either Peterson or Foote to remain effective for long, if they even stay past '09. But even so, maybe the light at the end of this tunnel isn't a train.

Discuss it Here, in The Den

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Training Camp Battles: Defensive Backs

Today I'll take a look at the safeties and cornerbacks and try to make hay of how the position group might settle out. The defensive backs are probably the toughest group on the team to project out because not only is it unsettled, it is mostly composed of veteran castoffs and young players set adrift by other organizations. Detroit figures to go into the season with 8-9 dbs on the roster and right now it is hard to really argue more than about five guys have better than tenuous positions on the team.

Safeties

Louis Delmas. I can't possibly write anything that hasn't been discussed exhaustively in the Den and elsewhere. scottallen222 started a thread that got extensive contributions Here. Chance of making roster: 100%

Kalvin Pearson. Earned some impressive copy out of the OTAs, Pearson is probably the favorite right now to win the second starting job. He's limited and probably shouldn't be a full-time player but for now he's the best Detroit has. Chance of making roster: 90%

Marquand Manuel. I expect him to compete hard for the starting spot opposite Delmas, and I also don't expect him to win it. He really isn't very good. He's got a lot of experience with a number of teams, none of which were too motivated to keep him. He was cut two years ago after the first year of a five year deal. Yeesh. Even so, I think he'll show enough that Schwartz will have a hard time cutting him. Chance of making roster: 80%

Daniel Bullocks. That Bullocks is the most experience returning safety is a testament to [something]. I don't think anyone outside of Allen Park has either a great feel for exactly how talented Bullocks is or how much potential remains. I expect we'll have a better idea after this summer. I expect Bullocks to make the roster as the fourth safety but it wouldn't be a huge upset to see him cut. Considering that Gerald Alexander was competing against Pearson, Manuel, and Bullocks it is a bit scary that he was expendable so quickly. Chance of making roster: 75%

Stuart Schweigert. Had a couple of really promising years for the Raiders before going over a cliff a couple of years ago, losing his starting gig and then getting cut twice in training camp last summer. He was signed by Detroit to replace LaMarcus Hicks so I guess he might have a better shot of making this year's team but I don't think his odds are good. Chance of making roster: 30%

LaMarcus Hicks. Still has some practice squad eligibility, and Detroit might stash him there until they need him. Chance of making roster: 20%

Tra Battle. It is tough to distinguish his chances from Schweigert's or Hicks'. Like Hicks, Battle still has practice squad eligibility so he may find a spot there. Chance of making roster: 20%

Cornerbacks

AtticusSpeaks provided an excellent treatment of the Lions' corners a few days ago. I could do the same but it would look very familiar to those who read Atticus'. Instead I'll just roll through the suspects with only a couple of comments.

Philip Buchanon. Starter. Chance of making roster: 100%

Anthony Henry. Starter by default. His presence might force Schwartz and Gunther to keep one more corner and one fewer safety. Chance of making roster: 100%

Eric King. Nickel. I sort of think he will be starting before the end of the year. Chance of making roster: 90%

Keith Smith. Dime, I guess. Chance of making roster: 60%

Ramzee Robinson. Mister Irrelevant. Chance of making roster: 30%

Chris Roberson. Practice squadder. Chance of making roster: 5%

As Atticus points out, the cornerbacks are a wasteland. A year ago Detroit arguably had better corners than they do today. While it is impossible for this year's group to be worse than the '08 flavor, it is just as easy to argue that they won't be much better, particularly as injuries expose their lack of depth.

Discuss this Here, in The Den

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Buchanon's titles: CB, Delmas Mentor

Good article on the revamped Lions secondary from Chrissie Wywrot at DetroitLions.com.

Wywrot points out that Coach Jim Schwartz has said the two units that need the most cameraderie and teamwork are offensive line and the secondary. Daniel Bullocks said the acquisition of players like CBs Phillip Buchanon and Anthony Henry have given the Lions a more veteran secondary. But the communication and chemistry between the older guys and the youngsters has been good.

Rookie safety Louis Delmas and veteran cornerback Phillip Buchanon are both new to the Detroit Lions this year. Buchanon was one of the team’s first free agent signings while Delmas was the club’s first defensive pick in the draft.

Buchanon has taken priority to guiding Delmas as he breaks into the NFL, schooling him on what it takes to become a professional in the league. The pair will work out together for the remainder of the offseason at the University of Miami.

“We’ll talk about some personal stuff, we’ll talk about some stuff that I think he should do, some mistakes that I made so he can actually not make those mistakes,” said Buchanon. “Then we’ll get into some football; talking and communication and stuff like that. We’re going to get our quality work in and we’re going to come back and be ready to play.”

Henry added that Delmas has been doing great, but people shouldn't forget it's a big jump from the Mid-American Conference to the pro game:

“He’s been doing a great job as far as communicating and stuff like that,” said Henry. “The certain thing that he’ll get used to as his career goes is the speed of the game. In certain situations in the red zone, the coaches are telling him to look outside and then get back to the tight end.

“Well, it’s happening so fast ... he’s doing what they’re telling him to do, but he’s not used to the reaction time. I think as it goes along, he’ll be a lot better at that.”

And one secondary who's got his colleagues raving is perhaps a surprise: Kalvin Pearson.

“Kalvin is a big-time guy,” said Buchanon. “He’s physical, he does whatever it takes and he’s somebody that you can depend on. He’s definitely a leader in my eyes; he understands the game pretty much on the same level that I do because we played together. Since we were coached by some of the same people we kind of see things the same way. I actually love playing with him. He’s a guy I can actually go to battle with.”

My take? On a historically bad team last year, the secondary was perhaps the worst unit of all. The Lions made a lot of changes that can't help but be positive. But as Schwartz has said, it's all about cohesion with the secondary. How quickly these guys can mesh together will be critical to how well the turnaround for the team goes.

Talk about it in The Den!

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Marquand Manuel says don't hold his frequent travels against him

Good little article from Nick Cotsonika at Freep.com on new Lions S Marquand Manuel.

The Lions are Manuel's sixth team in eight seasons.

But as well-traveled as he has been, he has also played well enough to appear in 111 games -- regular season and playoffs combined -- and to start 55 of them, including Super Bowl XL at Ford Field.

"Some people look at it like, 'Oh, you've been on a lot of teams,' " Manuel said. "I've started on every team I've been on -- not one game, not two games, but 14, 15, 16 starts."

Manuel said it was coaching changes and free agency that led to all of the movement.

Manuel said his experience has helped him pick up the Lions' defense, which is similar to what he ran with the Seahawks.

It should help him compete for playing time against rookie Louis Delmas and veterans Daniel Bullocks, Kalvin Pearson and Stuart Schweigert.

My take? Safety is shaping up to be one of the bigger question marks on the team. The Lions most definitely need somebody to emerge as solid on the other side of Delmas. I suppose Manuel has as much of a shot as the others.

Discuss in The Den!

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Tom K.: Lions would have cut Alexander anyway; safety looking weak after Delmas

MLive's Tom Kowalski seems to think the Lions trade of S Gerald Alexander for WR/KR Dennis Northcutt was worthwhile, if only because Alexander probably wasn't going to make the Lions' roster anyway, and if he did, he wouldn't have seen a lot of playing time.

The Lions checked the tape on Alexander to see if there was any noticeable decline in play before his neck injury last year. They "didn't see much difference in his production," and "didn't feel that Alexander had enough playmaking ability to be a factor in the defense," Killer says.

As it stands now, Louis Delmas is the only solid starter at S, according to Killer. Kalvin Pearson has been taking number-one reps opposite Delmas, but is viewed as more of a backup. Like Alexander, another former second-round pick at S has something to prove, 2006 draftee Daniel Bullocks.

My take? I'm beginning to understand the drafting of Delmas more and more. With offseason roster changes smoke clearing, it looks like safety is one of the weaker spots left on the team.

If Pearson and Bullocks don't have major bounce-back years; if Delmas isn't all that's advertised; or if Marquand Manual and/or Stuart Schweigert don't show up and make plays, things could get ugly -- again.

What's your take? Discuss it in The Den!

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Tom K. makes Kalvin Pearson - Ramon Santiago comparison -- and it actually kind of works

Tom Kowalski at MLive.com continues his summer scouting reports with Lions S Kalvin Pearson:

Perhaps the best way to describe Detroit Lions backup safety Kalvin Pearson is to compare him to Ramon Santiago of the Tigers - they're both effective when used in the right role but when they have to start in every game, their flaws are exposed. When used correctly, though, they can give your team a lift.

Killer rightly notes that Pearson is a bit undersized and while he's willing to hit, it seems the long season takes a toll on him when he gets a lot of playing time. He then reminds us of some of last season's ugliness:

He started fairly strong and then his effectiveness took a nosedive (Pearson had only started a total of two games in his previous three seasons). For example, the Tennessee Titans rushed the ball 46 times (for 292 yards) on Thanksgiving and Pearson was credited with just two tackles - one solo and one assist. Pearson is an aggressive and fearless hitter, but the long season took its toll.

Pearson can probably kiss starting goodbye, but the new coaching staff seems to like him for depth and special teams. Discuss in The Den!

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