Matthew Shepatin On Gunslinging

I have to admit that I am not fond of the term 'gunslinger'. It reminds me too much of bad Saturday afternoon serial westerns from the pre-cable days, and in a way I am sure the word has biased me away from wanting a 'gunslinger' on the team. Call it something else and I would probably be a little more receptive.

That said, Matthew Shepatin had some good points to chew on in an interview posted yesterday at the New York Times.

It’s no wonder that gunslingers like Sammy Baugh, Bobby Layne, Ken Stabler and Joe Namath are all but a thing of the past. Young quarterbacks like Tony Romo, Jay Cutler and Mark Sanchez have the skill and guts to carry on the great gunslinger legacy but I fear that the swashbuckler is being kicked out of them. Did you see Sanchez’s headfirst dive into the end zone Sunday against the Titans? Risky, possibly even stupid, and I loved every second of it. I, for one, hope that Sanchez continues to go out there and play with a free spirit. That’s the way Romo used to play when he first came on the scene. It’s what gave him a dangerous quality. He could strike at any time. He was out there making plays. Having fun. Now I watch Tony Romo and he doesn’t look like he’s having much fun at all. It’s not only sad as a spectator but what Wade Phillips doesn’t seem to get is that it’s counter-productive to getting the most out of him. Simplify the offense and let Romo do his thing. Same goes with Jay Cutler in Chicago.

Romo and Cutler are natural gunslingers. Where they get in trouble is thinking too much out there (worried about the consequences of failure) instead of just playing their game – which is on the edge, with passion, with verve, making plays with their feet and arms. When the gunslinger is allowed to play with abandonment, he’s not only capable of dazzling feats but he also energizes his whole team to make plays (see Vikings receiver Greg Lewis and Catch Of His Life).

It is Shepatin's last point that resonates best with me. How often have we read about Favre's linemen being willing to run through a wall for him - mainly because they know he will run through a wall for them. Going back, same thing with Jim McMahon. I didn't have the privilege of watching Baugh or Layne so I can only assume that they shared those qualities. I don't think we ever read about teammates having that kind of respect for Jon Kitna, even though he had a very competitive attitude when he was here. With Joey Harrington it may have been the opposite.

Obviously I am talking about Matt Stafford here, and the idea that he may be able to energize the team with his play warms me a bit more to his potential. While I still feel that Culpepper would have given the team a better chance to win that point is no longer relevant. They've won, and while the win had its share of dysfunction we also maybe saw some of those qualities from Stafford for the first time. The passes to Will Heller and Bryant Johnson and the 26 yard run on third and long in particular. Oddly this was a quality that Culpepper used to have and seems to have lost. In his prime he made a ton of mistakes but made even more plays.

The Lions' strategies from the last two games in particular had Stafford careful leashed against Minnesota and less carefully so against Washington. It will be interesting to see the playcalling evolve as Stafford grows. I expect that we will be both excited and infuriated, sometimes on consecutive plays.

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Thoughts From The Win

It's still a lot early to process the game and there were a lot of things happening. This won't be the first post on the game and certainly won't be the best analysis but here were a few of my takeaways.

I wasn't at all confident that Washington was a very good opponent for the Lions right now. Not that I think there are very good, in fact the opposite. I think they are terrible and are due for a collapse this year for a number of reasons. Even so, some of those things have already been exposed and that team was circling the wagons. I expected the Lions to break the streak by catching a team napping. This was far better, they caught a team fully prepared and whipped them.

Stafford was fine. Unlike last week, when he hit a lull he didn't go crazy and melt down with a series of bad decisions. While it isn't a cumulative stat, it is notable that his passer rating today was greater than his ratings of the first two weeks combined. I expected that the coaches would beat him up for ignoring Bryant Johnson the first two weeks. Maybe the interception in preseason on the pass to Johnson robbed Stafford of any faith he had in the guy. Regardless of the reason though, Stafford was convinced to go to Bryant repeatedly and it paid off well, even allowing for a drop by Bryant in the first half. The touchdown to Johnson as well as the 2nd down pass to Will Heller in the 4th quarter were the two most important signs of growth in Stafford that I have seen yet. Instead of trying to force the ball in Stafford put it up and trusted his receivers to make plays. I believe that the touchdown in particular would have been an easy interception only two weeks ago. There were a few misses, but overall this was the Big Step I've been expecting from Stafford, and this game restores much of my faith in the decision by Schwartz to start him.

Kevin Smith was brilliant and if he misses significant time it will be a real blow. While the offensive line blocked well the entire game, it is hard to overlook the difference in production between Smith (16/101) and the rest of the running backs (17/21). While the reality of things won't be that dramatic, the numbers do reflect the quality that Smith brings to the position.

The Lion defense was the key to the win. Unlike the first two games, Detroit held the opposing quarterback to a fairly average game. Combined with a run defense that continues to be effective they were able to slow Washington enough for the win. Schemes tend to win on defense, and Detroit demonstrated this today with their relatively anonymous group of contributers. Something called Kevin Hobbs was the Lions' third leading tackler, need I say more?

On the other hand though the game that Detroit played today would not be good enough to win in most weeks. The Redskins did as much to lose as the Lions to win, even going down to the decision in the last few seconds by Zorn to take no shots at the endzone. Washington committed the only turnover and it was unforced, the blocking by their offensive line was very sketchy, their play-calling seemed to lack much cohesion, they committed almost 100 yards of penalties. None of this is to detract from the Lions' accomplishment, they took what the Redskins gave them and did what they had to do. It is, however to point out that this was more the type of win that poor teams are able to nab a few times per year, not nearly the type of win that good teams carve out weekly. There is still plenty of work to do.

Tick Tock

With a couple of days to sober up from Sunday's game and a little thought into the matter I started to wonder when we could expect to see the corner turn for Matt Stafford. My initial thought was that this would have been an argument for sitting him at the start of the season - and in a way it still is, but that is all water under the bridge. The decision is made and reversing it now would be a pretty bad idea.

Stafford's first couple of games have been pretty bad. So far he is either the worst or second worst starting quarterback in the NFL (Jamarcus Russell is simply awful, despite his game winning drive on Sunday). That isn't good, and if it was predictable then it is really difficult to support the decision to play him this early. On the other hand, these games weren't the easiest for any quarterback on a bad team to handle. Often you see arguments for waiting for an advantageous schedule position to insert a rookie. The Lions chose to ignore the schedule when selecting their quarterback. The results weren't terribly surprising. Stafford was forced into a position where he would have to lead a comeback against New Orleans, and then was put in a spot where he would face one of the tougher defenses in the NFL.

None of this excuses the team for the decision, or Stafford for his play, but it perhaps explains things a bit. Stafford did seem to play within himself a little more on Sunday. As with the prior week, when he tried to go downfield bad things typically happened, but at least this week he was finding open players on checkdowns rather than just locking in on Calvin Johnson and heaving the ball into triple coverage.

But this isn't about that. I got a little curious about when we could expect to see Stafford make that leap. In his case, even an improvement from awful to merely poor would do a lot to reinforce the faith that so many have put in him. While it is impossible to predict when - or if - Stafford will make any kind of sudden improvement, we can certainly look at other quarterbacks as guideposts. The good news is that Stafford's experience is not atypical. He's on the low side of normal, but other than a few notable exceptions most quarterbacks have started out similarly their rookie year:

Player Game 1+2  Att Comp Pct Yds TD INT
Stafford          67  34 50.7 357  1  5

Weinke            63  40 63.5 499  1  1
Carr              47  16 34.0 232  2  3
Harrington        70  35 50.0 449  3  4
Ramsey            67  31 46.3 455  1  4
Leftwich          64  36 56.3 567  3  3
Boller            60  29 48.3 230  1  2
Grossman          32  32 51.6 406  2  1
E Manning         58  23 39.7 228  1  2
Roethlisberger    47  29 61.7 337  2  1
Smith             39  17 43.6 166  0  5
Frye              44  29 65.9 646  3  1
Orton             49  29 59.2 291  1  1
Fitzpatrick       81  47 58.0 398  0  6
Young             50  24 48.0 218  1  3
Leinart           77  46 59.7 485  4  1
Cutler            51  27 52.9 331  4  2
Gradkowski        75  45 70.5 409  4  1
Edwards           59  45 76.2 410  1  2
Ryan              46  22 47.8 319  1  2
Flacco            48  28 58.3 258  0  0

As every circumstance is pretty different it is difficult to peg Stafford. It is very safe to say that guys like Roethlisberger and Cutler and Edwards had stronger starts, tougher to say the same about players like Eli who had both the benefit of a stronger supporting cast as well as several weeks to absorb the game before being inserted into the lineup. Looking ahead to games 3 and 4 we see:

Game 3         Att  Comp Pct Yds TD INT


Weinke         30    18 60.0 160  1  1
Carr           22    12 54.5  99  0  1
Harrington     41    25 61.0 309  2  1
Ramsey         27    12 44.4 204  1  0
Leftwich       42    24 57.1 256  0  3
Boller         21    12 57.1  98  1  1
Grossman       10     6 60.0  31  0  0
E Manning      21     6 28.6 148  0  2
Roethlisberger 21    16 76.2 231  1  1
Smith          24    16 66.7 185  0  3
Frye           32    21 65.6 198  0  1
Orton          39    17 43.6 117  1  0
Fitzpatrick    24    10 41.7  69  1  1
Young          25    13 52.0 161  1  0
Leinart        32    13 40.6 203  0  2
Cutler         31    21 67.7 261  2  1
Gradkowski     26    13 50.0 104  0  0
Edwards        21    11 52.4 153  0  1
Ryan           18    12 66.7 192  1  0
Flacco         31    16 51.6 192  1  0

Game 4          Att Comp Pct Yds TD INT


Weinke          47   29 61.7 275  1  3
Carr            29   16 55.2 188  2  2
Harrington      29   16 55.2 199  0  0
Ramsey          35   23 65.7 213  3  0
Leftwich        27   15 55.6 158  1  2
Boller          26   15 57.7 140  0  3
Grossman        35   16 45.7 227  0  2
E Manning       25   12 48.0 113  0  0
Roethlisberger  25   21 84.0 193  2  0
Smith           22    9 40.9  77  0  1
Frye            39   20 51.3 183  0  0
Orton           26   16 61.5 117  1  0
Fitzpatrick 
Young           15    7 46.7  87  1  0
Leinart         35   14 40.0 157  1  1
Cutler          23   12 52.2 179  2  1
Gradkowski      48   20 41.7 139  0  0
Edwards         21   14 66.7 130  0  1
Ryan            41   21 51.2 158  0  0
Flacco          27   18 66.7 153  0  2

Even at this point we don't see much improvement for most quarterbacks. Eli Manning continued to struggle. Ryan remained effective while Flacco was still on the interception streak that marred his rookie year. If this tells us anything it is that it will be quite a while before we can really determine what Stafford will become. Whether it is wise to be playing him at all is a different argument for a different post, but that decision is made. It is very likely that Stafford will continue to produce just about the same as he has for the next few weeks with any improvements incremental and not necessarily reflected in the statistics.

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Skeletons in the Closet

Recently, while surfing through channels, I stumbled upon a replay of the 2000 Holiday Bowl, featuring the Texas Longhorns and the Oregon Ducks.  I nearly continued changing channels, then I realized: 2000 Oregon Ducks . . . Joey Harrington.  The game was already into the fourth quarter, so a complete TV scout was impossible, but it was certainly worth watching.

What I saw was unnerving.  Joey looked good; very good.  By the time I’d tuned in, he’d already thrown two touchdowns, rushed for another, and received yet another (!).  He got rid of the ball quickly, hit receivers in stride, and was instrumental in engineering two critical touchdown drives in the closing minutes.  It was unnerving because I saw very little of the indecisive, inaccurate quarterback Lions fans would come to know.  There were some little things that looked familiar---his lower body mechanics were still way off—but on the whole, it was a completely different John Joseph Harrington, Jr., under center for the Ducks.  What unnerved me the most?  How much I liked what I saw—the same way I like what I’ve seen of Matthew Stafford.

What went wrong?  Where did Joey’s accuracy, the decision-making, and clutch performance go?  What happened to the sharp, accurate passer I saw on TV, swathed in one of the most ridiculous uniforms in sports?  I suspect the answer has something to do the guy they kept cutting to up on in the booth: OC/QB Coach Jeff Tedford, whom we saw on-screen no less than three times in the waning minutes of the game.

Tedford, whose potent college offenses have produced a string of high-profile NFL busts, is a universally-acknowledged offensive mastermind, a brilliant X-and-O man who puts his players in excellent positions to win.  He does a lot of of the work for his quarterbacks, having enginered an offense that’s based on one or two pre-snap reads.  Often, these keys will remove all but one or two options for a quarterback--meaning when the ball is snapped, he can focus entirely on execution.  While this leads to Tedford being able to extract quality play from nearly any quarterback with a solid arm and decent athleticism, it’s resulted in many of his star pupils failing to catch on at the next level.

When Joey Harrington came to the Lions, he was inserted into the classic Bill Walsh offense; 4 or 5 options on every play, with quick reads, quick decisions, and accurate passing absolutely vital to the success of the offense.  The Walsh offense and the Tedford offense share a lot of fundamental terminology and philosophy: a mix of power running, passing to the running backs, and quick timing passes to the wideouts.

The coaching approach, however, is completely different.  The Tedford offense relies on the quarterback to be an extension of the offensive coordinator; to execute a predetermined gameplan.  The Walsh offense requires a quarterback to be a ‘coach on the field’, with a full understanding of the goals and philosophies of the offense, and making all the reads and decisions as the action unfolds.

It’s no wonder common wisdom holds that quarterback needs three full years of coaching in the WCO before he can execute it at a high level, and it’s further no wonder that Joey Harrington failed to perform right away.  Historians—and Denizens--can debate for eternity whether Joey Ballgame ever had the potential to succeed.  But the success of Aaron Rodgers proves that with good coaching and lots of patience, a Tedford-coached player can indeed become an excellent professional quarterback.

How, then, can we apply this lesson to the development of Matthew Stafford?  The answer is, we can’t.  Stafford came from a relatively complex (for college) pro-style offense in Georgia, and the Lions run a relatively simple (for the pros) pro-style offense.  Stafford is a much different quarterback than Harrington in terms of physical and mental strengths and weaknesses.  Finally, Stafford is a much different person than Harrington, with a much different upbringing, football career, psyche, and attitude.  As much as we humans are wired to learn from past experiences, we may just have to get over our Harrington-induced phobia of rookie quarterbacks.

Then again, Roy Williams played in that Holiday Bowl too; the game-winning touchdown bounced off of his hands.  Maybe the past should make us wary about the future . . .

Discuss it here, in The Den!

Put The Nooses Away

Put the hemlock tea bags back up. Unload the 12 gauge. It wasn't that bad. Really.

Okay, so it was pretty bad, but if you maintain a comfortably pessimistic philosophy regarding the Lions, then it is actually pretty easy to find some of the bright spots in an otherwise uninspiring and borderline disastrous game. Drew Sharp, the only local writer I know of who is more cynical than me regarding the Lions wrote

It looks like they're already in regular-season form.

This is exactly why the Lions are certifiably nuts should quarterbacking savior du jour Matthew Stafford start when the March to 0-32 begins in earnest in New Orleans on Sept. 13. It's counterproductive exposing a rookie quarterback to a team apparently still hell-bent on creating as insurmountable an early obstacle as possible.

in an otherwise rambling column. He also wrote

If attitudes are indeed changing and Schwartz is indeed the right messenger, he should quickly make it clear that these Lions remain too fundamentally weak defensively to needlessly risk sentencing the future face of this franchise to the football gallows.

and while I agree, I fail to understand how this is surprising to anyone. Detroit's biggest flaw in 2009 was the defense, and not biggest by a little, but rather biggest by a lot. Despite multiple quarterback injuries, the Lions demonstrated a modestly decent offense last year with Calvin Johnson and Kevin Smith leading a reasonable two-way threat. It wasn't remotely good enough to overcome an awful defense, nor was it good enough to lead the way to any kind of contention even with a defense approaching average. It just wasn't the reason that Detroit went winless.

And over the winter Detroit followed their pattern of the last 8 seasons to fix the defense, they brought in a number of veteran free agents while waiting til the middle rounds to focus on their defensive holes. It is entirely predictable that their 2009 defense will resemble their 2008 defense. I expect it will be better, but nowhere near good.

So if we go into this whole thing accepting that it will be another long year, it is much easier to enjoy the small victories, knowing that the big ones aren't coming.

Stafford Okay, he didn't play well. Not even a little. But better for the faithful to see it now, then to have unrealistic expectations build throughout the preseason. The pressure for Detroit to play the kid is officially off and the Lions can go into the season with Stafford on a natural developmental trajectory, rather than a forced one that is more likely to end in disaster.

Jerome Felton He really played well, coming in with Culpepper midway through the 2nd quarter and immediately getting three consecutive runs for a first down. After an up-and-down rookie year exclusively at fullback I think we can hope that Felton may be able to fill a bigger role as part of a two-headed tandem that may really wear down opposing defenses.

Culpepper For the second consecutive week he looked very comfortable running the Lion offense. He showed great patience and good mobility in the backfield to stretch out plays. He was effective at waiting for plays to open and then throwing very catchable balls.

DeAndre Levy He whiffed on one of the Cribbs returns but otherwise was very effective, making plays all over the field including a great open-field tackle on special teams.

Jordan Dizon Is starting to really come on after a washed-out rookie season.

Sammy Lee Hill After an underwhelming first game, Hill seemed to consistently get a good push inside. He didn't show up on the stat sheet but he spent much of his time in Cleveland's backfield disrupting things.

Nick Harris Just killed it, averaging 50 yards over his 7 punts. Unfortunately the 22 yard average on returns ruined his net average, but that speaks more the quality of the two return teams and Josh Cribbs, rather than to Harris. He wasn't kicking line drives.

So see? There you go, a nice handful of positive takeaways from last night's game and that was only on one viewing. So forget the sleeping pills, don't lock yourself in the garage with the car idling. It's another day and the Lions are pretty much the same as they were two days ago.

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Run, Forrest!

On September 7 of '08 Michael Turner rushed for 220 yards in Matt Ryan's NFL debut, and Jerrious Norwood tacked on another 93. As a team, the Falcons rushed for 318 yards to the Lions' 70. Flash forward to August 15 '09, and we see something that Lion fans haven't seen in a very long time. A team that runs. And runs. And runs.

A lot (deservedly) has been made of Stafford's impressive debut. Culpepper's surprising nimbleness and playmaking qualities have also earned praise. So far though, there hasn't been a lot of discussion of the running game.

Detroit rushed 35 times for 191 yards. Stanton's bootleg was the key play that set up the game-winning field goal. Aaron Brown went to warp speed for his 32 yard touchdown run. Matt Stafford dragged a defender five yards for a first down. It was exciting to see and it is a dimension of the game that Detroit hasn't had since the days of Bobby Ross, excepting a few weeks with Kevin Jones.

I'm not exactly sure how excited to be about this, other than to know the commitment is there. Detroit's main backs, Aveion Cason and Allen Ervin combined for 47 yards on 17 carries, and while we know that they won't be getting the carries during the regular season - if either are even on the team - the holes that they attacked are the same holes that Smith and Morris will have to find. Barring a specialty package, Stanton's runs will be limited to running the microphone to call in plays to whichever quarterback the Lions ultimately choose. Brown's run, while exciting, was not one that will be available much during the regular season. He hit the edge quickly, but did it against rookie defenders who don't know their assignments as well as they should, and who also aren't as experienced at reading the flow of the play as well as veterans are. More often than not, Lance Briggs or Atari Bigby will be there to string the play out and limit the gain.

On the other hand, we did see a real commitment to the run. Not a hopeless effort like we've seen so many times in the last few years, but rather from a team clawing back from a deficit and getting positive yards to put the quarterback in a position to be able to make plays. Counting Culpepper's two scrambles, they ran 7 times in their first 10 plays to set up Hanson's field goal. The runs had a real purpose too, setting up the pass. They ran twice for a first down and then a screen to Kevin Smith for 11. They ran again and then took a shot at the end zone, forcing a defensive penalty and another first down. They ran twice more for short gains and then sucked in the defenders on a screen play that went for 16 more.

28 of Detroit's 35 yards came with the team behind. After Atlanta's last touchdown, Detroit came back in Stanton's first series and got the score back with six consecutive running plays, three by Ervin, one by Stanton, and the last two by Brown, including his 32 yard score. It was only in Detroit's last two possessions, running the two minute drill that the Lions abandoned the run.

After the game Jim Schwartz told Tony Ortiz that the Stanton bootleg at the end was not a called play, but rather a recognition by Stanton as the linebackers swarmed to the sidelines and the whole middle of the field parted. Culpepper's short runs and Stafford's bootleg did not appear to be designed either, but it is clear from their games that both like to run and get hit. Culpepper gained an extra yard on his drive by initiating contact and carrying the play forward. Stafford told Ortiz that getting hit is a part of the game that he enjoys, that it helps to bring things into focus.

I'm nowhere close to calling this a new paradigm. Detroit also rushed 35 times in last year's exhibition opener against the Giants. It is probably the nature of exhibition, particularly the first game, to just get out there and bang a little and then get the game over with. Even so, we saw some purpose to the running game yesterday that has been missing from the Lion arsenal for years.

Agree? Disagree? Have something to say? Discuss it Here, in The Den.

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Stafford & Sanchez: in the same boat

Matt Stafford and Mark Sanchez, the first and fifth overall picks in April’s NFL draft, have a lot of similarities: they both play quarterback, by teams that fired their coaching staffs after the 2008 season, they both figure to be starting for those teams by the end of the 2009 season, and they’re both expected to be the saviors of their respective franchises.  Oh, and they’re both handsome young men with millions upon millions of dollars coming in the door.

That is a pretty exclusive club they’re a part of; there aren’t too many other people in the world who understand the intense pressure each of these two young men is under.  It only stands to reason that they’ve come to rely on each other.  AP writer Tim Reynolds, writing for the National Football Post, has posted a very cool article on the common pressures and privileges they've encountered, and the friendship they’ve forged throughout those experiences.  Much like Joey Harrington and David Carr, Eli Manning and Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers and Alex Smith, and the Couch/McNabb/Culpepper/Smith quartet, these two quarterbacks will be relentlessly compared in development, production, and success for the rest of their careers—and possibly lives.

Here’s hoping, for their sake and ours, that their friendship and friendly rivalry culminates in a Super Bowl contest between the two teams that drafted them.

Discuss it here, in The Den!

First Look at the New Lions

The Lions’ new coaching staff has had some chance to evaluate their holdover stock, and their new acquisitions, through OTAs, film sessions, quarterback school, independent weight-room work, etc.  Moreover, up until this point, the rookies and veterans have been segregated—rookies against rookies, vets against vets.  This means that the key rookies are competing against dozens of “camp fodder” guys that almost certainly won’t make the team—and the veterans aren’t playing with or against several players who are sure to see plenty of playing time.

Now, however, the Lions’ new staff—charged with the Sisyphean task of making the worst team in the history of the NFL competitive—will get their first look at the complete, overhauled, roster today.  Since there won’t be any live TV, live radio, scoreboard, box score, or any other traditional metric of football success, Lions observers looking for concrete improvement will have to focus on a few key areas:

• Calvin Johnson vs. Cornerbacks: One of the only absolutes on the Lions roster is Calvin “Megatron” Johnson.  The 6’-5” wideout managed to haul in 78 balls for 1,331 yards and twelve scores last year--despite subpar quarterback play, and a lack of complementary threats to keep defenses honest.  It is probable that he'll be successful against both free agent CB signee Patrick Buchanon, and CB Anthony Henry, who came to the Lions via trade.  However, whether he is merely “successful”—as opposed to “unstoppable”—could reveal whether the Lions’ secondary can slow down the likes of Bernard Berrien and Greg Jennings . . . or not.
• Interior OL vs. Interior DL: The Lions have struggled for the better part of a decade to find stalwart guards to bracket smart, gritty veteran C Dominic Raiola. This offseason, the Lions re-signed Stephen Peterman, brought in Titans T/G Daniel Loper, claimed ongoing reclamation project Toniu Fonoti, and signed a pair of tackles--Ephraim Salaam and Jon Jansen--all of whom could compete for the two starting spots.  Peterman is the returning starter on the right; the Lions think his game is more suited to this run-first offense than the outgoing Martzian zone scheme.  Loper, who came to Detroit with Schwartz, has the inside track on the left guard spot—though his 6’-6”, 320-pound frame makes him a more natural tackle.  All will compete against an extremely young and raw defensive line.  With FA acquisition Grady Jackson taking most of the summer off to keep his legs fresh, fourth-round rookie Sammie Hill and second-year vet Andre Fluellen will get a lot of reps in this minicamp.  Both are athletic, yet extremely raw prospects.  Fluellen looked good in what very little time he played last season, but has been asked to bulk up in this new defense.  Hill needs little bulking up at a lean-looking 330 pounds--but having played for tiny Stillman College, he has nearly zero coaching in fundamentals or technique.  How these two fare against the rotating cast of outsized veterans will show how much the Lions have improved a run defense that allowed over 2,700 yards rushing in 2008.
• The linebacking corps: What was the Lions’ greatest weakness in 2008—the linebackers—just might now be their greatest strength.  A trade brought former MSU Spartan Julian Peterson in from Seattle, and Steelers run-stuffer--and Detroit native--Larry Foote, came home after becoming a cap casualty in Pittsburgh. Adding third-round rookie DeAndre Levy to returning starter Ernie Sims and second-year vet Jordon Dizon, the Lions’ new-look LB corps features a lot of speed and athleticism.  In coordinator Gunther Cunningham’s new blitz-heavy scheme, the Lions will be asking these players to create a lot of pressure—and in turn, relieve a lot of pressure from the defensive line and secondary.  Given the Lions’ well-documented troubles in pass protection, word from camp should be that these linebackers gave the offensive line fits—if not, the Lions’ defense could again lack fangs come autumn.

There will be many other interesting positional battles waged, and the performance of many other players will be closely watched--of course, all eyes will be on Matt Stafford and Duante Culpepper.  However, determining when in the next 12 months Matt Stafford will take over won’t answer the real questions surrounding this team: Can they run?  Can they stop the run?  Can they rush the passer, and can they cover opposing wideouts?  The answer to at least some of these questions being "yes" will be the keys to the Lions winning . . . well, any games in 2009.

Discuss it here, in The Den!

Brian VanOchten looks in front of the QB battle

Brian VanOchten, of the Grand Rapids press, has written a very interesting article framing the Lions’ quarterback position not in terms of the quarterbacks—but in terms of the offensive line.  Brian’s contention is that since Stafford is certainly going to be the long-term starter for the Lions, whether they allow him to go out there right away depends not on his performance or Culpepper’s performance, but on the performance of the big boys up front.  If the new OL signees jell quickly and prove they can keep the quarterback clean, VanOchten theorizes, Stafford will start sooner rather than later.

Stafford, if he’s half of what he’s been billed to be, is already a better quarterback than Duante Culpepper at this point in time.  The team has—wisely—made no real investment in Culpepper, and has—who knowsly—made an enormous investment in Stafford.  Stafford started as a freshman at Georgia, and for two years more after that.  Outside of the NFL, there’s no more pressure-packed situation.  Matt Stafford is not going to be brought to his knees by the incredible pressure and big stage of the NFL.  Georgia’s football stadium holds more fans than Ford Field—and they’re a lot crazier to boot.  With Stafford’s arm, experience, pedigree, and intelligence (38 on the Wonderlic), he’ll be able to handle it.  With great coaching, plus Megatron and Pettigrew to lean on, he should have no shortage of crutches and safety valves.  I say, let him grip it and rip it—what’s the worst that could happen, 0-16?

Discuss it here, in The Den!

Stafford On ESPN Radio

Nothing particularly revelatory. He feels he is picking up the offense quickly and is able to call plays fairly easily already, which is promising if not unexpected.

When asked to evaluate the Lion offensive talent he rolled off the names of the usual suspects but emphasized that it is Schwartz' philosophy that will make the most significant difference to the team. I always roll my eyes when rookies are asked to evaluate their team after the draft anyway. How could they possibly know?
Link to podcast
Ongoing discussion Here in The Den.

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The Lions: 1989 And 2009

It is interesting (to me) that the Lions go into 2009 in a sitation similar to the one they were in precisely 20 years earlier. A multiyear run near the bottom of the league. A new defensive-minded head coach replacing an old defensive-minded head coach who was clearly out of his league. A fanbase that had finally capitulated, staying away from the the team in droves. A young offensive player taken at the top of the draft who would be relied upon to lead the team from the wilderness.

I thought it would be fun to look at the differences and similarities between these two teams.

Similarities

Much like the '08 Lion defense, the '88 offense was the worst in the league, and not by a little. They finished last in scoring, yards, passing yards, rushing TD, rushing y/a, passing net y/a, and 1st downs. They also finished bottom 3 in rush yards and rush atts. Much like the '08 defense's inability to get off the field, the '88 Lions offense was unable to stay on the field.

Signature play of ineptitude. The '08 Lions had Orlovsky running out of the back of the endzone for a mistaken safety. The '88 Lions had the Mayday play against the Saints, which a few of you may recall. Deep in their own end and protecting a slim lead, Jim Arnold lined up to punt on 4th down. Noting that the gunner was uncovered, Arnold called a pre-arranged audible "Mayday! Mayday", before taking the snap and passing to the uncovered gunner. The gunner apparently didn't hear or didn't understand the audible and never turned. The perfect pass by Arnold struck the gunner in the back of the head. The Saints took over on downs within the Detroit 10 yard line and quickly scored to take the lead.

Superlative kicking. The '08 Lions had veteran Jason Hanson leading the league with a 95% FG rate while setting records for long field goals, supported by very solid punting from Nick Harris. The '88 Lions had veteran Eddie Murray connecting on 95% of his field goals in his last great seasons with Pro Bowler Arnold handling the punting.

Missing quarterback. The '08 Lions played 5 quarterbacks, starting 3 of them and never settling on one. The '88 Lions played 4 quarterbacks, starting 2 of them. Both teams had the quarterback who started the year for them end the year on the IR. Both teams signed a veteran free agent mid-season who instantly became the starter. Daunte Culpepper in '08, Rusty Hilger in '88. Not surprisingly, both of them sucked.

Bad misses on skill position players. In the '80s Detroit invested first round picks on Mark "He'll Do For The Passing Game What Billy Sims Did For The Rushing Game" Nichols, Dave Lewis and Chuck Long, all significant busts. The mid '00s Lions wasted high first rounders on Harrington, Chuck Rogers and Mike Williams.

Differences

Aside from the obvious, the '89 Lions promoted their interim HC while enduring another season under Russ Thomas while the '09 Lions promoted their interim GM and went outside the organization for the HC, there were a few other distinctive differences between these two teams.

The '88 defense. As bad as the offense was on that team, Wayne Fontes had really built a quality defense. His Bend But Don't Break 3-4 finished 10th in scoring while landing in the middle of the pack in the yardage categories. Mike Cofer qualified for the Pro Bowl at OLB.

Core of quality young players. Forgive me for jumping to conclusions, but outside of Calvin Johnson there is little reason to be particularly optimistic about any players returning to the '09 team. Smith, Cherilus and Avril each have the potential to be plus players but at this point it is potential unrealized. By contrast the '89 team had a solid core of young veterans. Lomas Brown and Kevin Glover were entering their 5th seasons, Jerry Ball, Dennis Gibson and Dan Saleaumua entering their 3rd. Bennie Blades and Chris Spielman were coming off of standout rookie years and would become cornerstones of the defense. Eric Andolsek and William White were also coming off of their rookie seasons and would enter the lineup as quality pros in '89.

Barry Sanders versus Matt Stafford. I guess Calvin Johnson is the cornerstone offensive player for the Lions right now, but it is very difficult for wide receivers to have the type of impact that running backs and quarterbacks have. The very best receivers may get ten touches per game while even average running backs get twenty or more. Regardless of what Stafford becomes, the flavor of these teams will be entirely different. When a team has a player who is the best in the league and among the best of all-time the very identity of the team becomes wrapped up in that player. It is impossible to think of the Lions from that era without thinking of Barry Sanders. If Stafford is destined for greatness then the Lions of the teens will be forever entwined with Stafford, but even then it will be impossible to compare those teams with the Lions of Barry Sanders. The identities will be entirely different.

Coordinator philosophy. Two areas where these teams are going in opposite directions. The Lions are coming off of a period of offensive innovation (2008 notwithstanding) and moving to a much more traditional offensive philosophy. Likewise they are moving away from a tired fad of a defense toward a traditional set with traditional philosophies and goals. The '89 Lions installed an innovative offense that had not been seen in the NFL while running a defense that was also a bit out of the prevailing practice of the day. While teams were emulating the attacking and stifling defenses of the Bears, Eagles and Giants, the Lions opted for a gap filling defense built around Jerry Ball and funneling everything into Speilman and Gibson.

In the end, these teams are vastly different, both in the type and quality of personnel. But even so it is entertaining to consider the two teams against the single generational difference that separates them.

Ongoing discussion Here in The Den.

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Dan Miller On WZAM: 15 Minute Interview

Pirated from WZAM Marquette via MLive. Really outstanding 15 minute interview with Miller where he discusses the OTAs in real depth.

Highlights:

Stafford has a lot of talent but his rawness is pretty clear (yawn).

Pettigrew looks good, but more important in Miller's analysis that Pettigrew was really drafted to be an impact player along the lines of Witten/Cash/Gonzalez. While he has a slightly different skill set, Miller was pretty emphatic that Pettigrew is out there to create mismatches and in his eyes will be a disappointment if he doesn't become a significant offensive threat.

And the best, his discussion of Delmas (paraphrasing) 'the fans will love Delmas, he hits everything that moves and keeps hitting it until it stops moving'.

Miller goes on to warn that it's early, players are in shorts, etc. Another datapoint that we have a lot to be optimistic about concerning the '09 rookies. Every source has been positive on the top three and it is sounding more and more like Delmas is projecting to be a star.

Direct download of interview. Link to MLive article/discussion.

Discuss it here in The Den.

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Killer: Stafford's got street cred

Tom Kowalski over at Mlive.com has posted an interesting little article about the famous party pics of Matt Stafford, taken as he attended a NASCAR race during college, and the source of at least a few tempests in teapots.  Apparently, the pics have garnered him not scorn but respect in the locker room.  This isn't that surprising; given both the lack of political correctness in locker rooms, and the "strawberries and champagne" reptutation of the last Golden Boy quarterback that got ready for work in that particular locker room.

Frankly, given the fact that Matt Stafford was a three-year starter at a warm-weather SEC school, where football is a religion, and partying is a year-round thing, he'd have to have lived in an abbey not to have partaken in at least a little weekend revelry.  Good Ol' Boy credibility aside, it's sounding like Stafford has already managed to win over his teammates far more than Joey Ballgame ever could.

Discuss it here, in The Den!

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Peter King: Stafford favorite to win "arms race"

Peter King of SI.com, in his weekly "Monday Morning Quarterback" article, is reporting that the coaches are swooning over Stafford's OTA performances.  Moreover, given the amount of money the Lions have already invested in Stafford, and the suddenly empty seats in Ford Field, starting Stafford is not an "if" but a "when"--and it's looking like "when" will be sooner rather than later.

King questions the wisdom of putting Stafford in early against the Lions' brutal early schedule; of course the debate about when to start a rookie quarterback is always intense and divisive.  Stafford, however, has all the hallmarks of a start-him-early quarterback: elite arm, three-year starter at a power program, unflappably confident--yet not cocky.  If he is not right now a better quarterback than Duante Culpepper, then he'll likely never be worth the contract he's signed.  It makes littler sense to revamp the entire franchise from the top (President, GM, Head Coach) to the bottom (logo, uniforms)--and then have the face of the franchise be the washed-up stopgap from 0-16.

Discuss it here, in The Den!

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Lions and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. try to sell each other's tickets

Embattled heir to the NASCAR throne, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., made an appearance at the Motor City Casino with Lions coach Jim Schwartz, as well as Lions Matt Stafford, Jared DeVries, and Casey Fitzsimmons.  According to Mike Brudenell of the Free Press, Earnhardt was at the casino to speak with hundreds of GM employees about the adversity he'd gone through this season, and how he was persevering and overcoming it.  For his trouble, was presented with an authentic Lions helmet.  The event was an interesting cross-promotion, both trying to raise awareness and ticket sales for the annual NASCAR race at MIS, and raise awareness and ticket sales for the Lions.

Dale, Jr., the Lions, and GM certainly have a lot in common when it comes to disappointment, but I'd like to think they're at different points on the journey.  The Lions already hit rock bottom and are poised to regain respectability, GM is set to bottom out on Monday, and Earnhardt might not yet have fallen as far as he's going to fall.  Still, here's hoping I'm wrong--and that the Lions, NASCAR's favorite son, and the hardworking men and women of GM have all put their worst days behind them.

Discuss it here, in The Den!

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Just a tease: Matt Stafford in Honolulu Blue

NFL.com was nice enough to post a quick video of Matt Stafford and Jim Schwartz discussing his progress during the OTA sessions yesterday, along with several clips of Stafford working through throwing drills.  To even pretend to analyze how he looks here from these few throws would be a fool's errand.  There is nothing on here that is too discouraging (one short throw on the run looks pretty wobbly) or encouraging (a couple nice deep balls are shown, but the camera angles are quite poor, so you don't see much); about what you'd expect.  Still, this is the first real video we've seen of Matt Stafford, Detroit Lions quarterback.

Discuss it in The Den!

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OTA Notes

Dave Birkett with a couple of Blog posts from the OTAs reports.

Stafford got reps with the second team with somewhat predictable results. Very good in one-on-one drills, shakier with the full team stuff. It's difficult to be either impressed or dismayed considering he is working with rookies who won't make the team. There is little doubt of what Stafford is capable of, but much more doubt about how well or quickly he will be able to translate his capabilities into consistent production. That question certainly won't be answered by the end of OTAs, and possibly not before 2010.

Birkett also notes that Schwartz was complimentary of Drew Stanton, but the compliments seemed a bit backhanded. I get the distinct impression that Stanton has no chance of keeping a roster spot through the summer. On the other hand, despite months of reports that the Lions are hunting for a veteran backup QB they haven't even brought one in for a conversation. I suspect that Shwartz and Mayhew want to define Stafford's role before they find their third quarterback. Will Stafford be the primary backup or the primary clipboard caddy? Another question for July, not May.

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Stafford's "guaranteed" money no sure thing

When Matt Stafford's deal was announced, the amount of "guaranteed' money dropped jaws around the league.  Reported to be a staggering $41.7 million dollars, many shook their head at the foolishness of the Lions' front office.  Despite Tom Lewand's long track record of crafting especially creative and clever contracts, despite the fact that agents typically release the terms of deals and Stafford is represented by power agent Tom Condon, and despite nearly a two-day stall in negotiations--reportedly over the structure of the guaranteed money--most fans, media, and journalists decried the Lions' awful negotation skills.

Well, blogger AdamJT13 has revealed (according to only him; as of right now there's been no confirmation of his numbers) the exact structure of Matt Stafford's contract, including a nifty 2010 option bonus.  According to this excellent article, if Stafford rolled up to Allen Park in a new Toyota Tundra this morning, and Mr. Ford ordered his immediate release, Stafford would only be owed a lousy $17.05 million.

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the NFC North quarterback picture

The possibility of Brett Favre joining the Vikings has spawned a lot of conversation about the NFC North, the old black-and-blue division, suddenly boasting the strongest-armed passing attacks in the NFL.  Dave Birkett of the Oakland Press decided to rank the NFC North QBs, first-to-worst.  He assumes that the Favre deal will eventually happen, and that the Lions could be starting either Stafford or Culpepper come Week 1.  Of course, if Culpepper is truly back in 2004 form, his arm is nearly as strong as Stafford's, the autumn "air show" will happen no matter who's under center for the Lions.

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